Estimating failure probabilities

A framework for continuously estimating persistent and intermittent failure probabilities

Almost all previous work on model-based diagnosis has focussed on persistent faults where the prior probability of component failure is provided by the manufacturer or estimated from fleet-wide service records. However, some of the most difficult to diagnose faults are intermittent. It is very difficult to isolate intermittent faults which occur with low frequency but yet at high enough frequen...

Efficient Monte Carlo methods for estimating failure probabilities

We develop efficient Monte Carlo methods for estimating the failure probability of a system. An example of the problem comes from an approach for probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants known as riskinformed safety-margin characterization, but it also arises in other contexts, e.g., structural reliability, catastrophe modeling, and finance. We estimate the failure probability us...

Estimating Paired-Interaction Probabilities

Estimating Probabilities in PCFGs

CHAPTER 2 Estimating Probabilities

This is a rough draft chapter intended for inclusion in the upcoming second edition of the textbook Machine Learning, T.M. Mitchell, McGraw Hill. You are welcome to use this for educational purposes, but do not duplicate or repost it on the internet. For online copies of this and other materials related to this book, visit the web site www.cs.cmu.edu/∼tom/mlbook.html. Please send suggestions fo...